Monday, 9th September:
- China Inflation Data (CPI & PPI) – 2:30am BST: This release is crucial for the China A50 index as the government’s efforts to revive consumer demand through targeted stimulus will be evaluated. A rise in CPI to 0.6% (up from 0.5%) could be seen as a positive sign, while a drop in PPI to -1.8% (from -0.8%) suggests producer prices continue to contract, indicating challenges in industrial recovery.
- JPY Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – 12:50am BST: With Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinting at future rate hikes, this update will impact the direction of USDJPY and the Japan 225. A stronger-than-expected GDP could provide more support for tightening monetary policy, while a weaker print may keep the BoJ on hold.
Tuesday, 10th September:
- China Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance – 4:00am BST: With the global economy under scrutiny, traders will focus on China’s trade data, particularly exports. Weak export numbers could signal reduced global demand, impacting risk sentiment and commodity markets. Any positive surprise could improve market confidence.
- UK Employment Data – 7:00am BST: The Bank of England is considering another rate cut, and this data could be pivotal. A fall in unemployment or a rise in average earnings could put pressure on the BoE to maintain its current stance. The claimant count change is expected to come in lower at 95.5K, down from 135.0K, while the Average Earnings Index is forecasted to rise by 4.1%.
- BOC Governor Macklem Speaks – 1:10pm BST: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem’s speech will provide insights into the central bank’s policy direction. Any hints of future rate moves could influence the CAD’s performance.
Wednesday, 11th September:
- UK GDP m/m – 7:00am BST: A key indicator for GBP traders, UK GDP is expected to rise by 0.2% after remaining flat previously. Any divergence from this forecast could influence the GBPUSD pair and UK 100 index.
- US Inflation Data (CPI) – 1:30pm BST: With the final inflation reading before the Fed’s 18th September meeting, traders will closely watch these figures. A CPI m/m increase of 0.2% is expected, with a y/y figure of 2.6%. A softer inflation print could increase expectations of a more substantial rate cut, impacting US stock indices and the USD.
- US Core CPI m/m – 1:30pm BST: This measures the underlying inflation trend, excluding volatile food and energy prices, with a forecasted rise of 0.2%. This data will be closely monitored for signs of inflation easing or persisting.
- US Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30pm BST: Crude oil inventories are forecasted to show a significant reduction of -6.9 million barrels, which could support oil prices. A larger-than-expected draw could push prices higher, impacting energy markets globally.
Thursday, 12th September:
- ECB Interest Rate Decision – 1:15pm BST: The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 3.65%. Any deviation from this will be a significant surprise. Traders will also focus on the Monetary Policy Statement and ECB Press Conference at 1:45pm BST, where President Christine Lagarde may provide further clarity on future rate cuts and economic outlook.
- US Core PPI m/m – 1:30pm BST: Producer prices are forecasted to rise by 0.2%, an indicator of inflation at the wholesale level. Any stronger reading could imply persistent inflationary pressures, influencing Fed rate expectations.
- US Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm BST: Initial jobless claims are projected to come in at 229K, slightly higher than last week’s 227K. A higher number could increase recession fears, while a lower figure may boost confidence in the labor market’s strength.
- US 30-Year Bond Auction – 6:01pm BST: This auction will reveal investor demand for long-term US debt, which has implications for the broader bond market and interest rate outlook.
Friday, 13th September:
- US Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment – 3:00pm BST: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is forecasted at 68.4, up from 67.9. Rising consumer sentiment is key to supporting the idea of a “soft landing” for the US economy, and strong numbers could positively impact US stocks.
- US Inflation Expectations – 3:00pm BST: Closely watched by the Fed, inflation expectations for consumers could provide an insight into future inflation trends. A figure of 2.8% is forecasted, and any increase above that could fuel concerns about persistent inflation.
Saturday, 14th September:
- China Industrial Production y/y – 3:00am BST: Industrial production is expected to rise by 4.7%, down slightly from the previous 5.1%. This data will offer clues about China’s economic recovery and impact commodities and global risk sentiment.
- China Retail Sales y/y – 3:00am BST: Retail sales are forecasted to grow by 2.5%, down from the previous 2.7%, reflecting the health of consumer spending in China. A weaker print could signal ongoing struggles for the Chinese economy, affecting global market sentiment.
These key events and economic data releases will be crucial for traders and investors, offering a window into the health of the global economy and guiding expectations for monetary policy across major markets.
