Sunday, 25th August
- EUR German ifo Business Climate – 9:00am BST: The German ifo Business Climate Index will be closely watched as it provides insights into the current sentiment in Europe’s largest economy. A weaker-than-expected reading could increase concerns about the Eurozone’s economic health, potentially impacting the euro and European stock indices.
Monday, 26th August
- USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 1:30pm BST: Core durable goods orders, excluding transportation, are crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy. A decline could indicate slowing economic momentum, which may heighten recession fears, impacting U.S. stock indices and the dollar.
- USD Durable Goods Orders m/m – 1:30pm BST: A significant rise in durable goods orders could signal resilience in the U.S. economy. However, volatility could increase if the data misses expectations, especially given the previous month’s negative reading.
Tuesday, 27th August
- USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y – 2:00pm BST: This index, measuring home prices in 20 major U.S. cities, provides insights into the housing market’s strength. A slowdown could indicate cooling economic activity, which may influence expectations for future Fed rate cuts.
- USD CB Consumer Confidence – 3:00pm BST: U.S. consumer confidence data is a key indicator of future spending. A decline could signal reduced consumer activity, potentially impacting earnings forecasts and pressuring U.S. markets.
- USD Richmond Manufacturing Index – 3:00pm BST: This index provides a snapshot of the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. A significant drop could amplify recession concerns, affecting the U.S. dollar and stock indices.
Wednesday, 28th August
- AUD CPI y/y – 2:30am BST: Australia’s year-over-year CPI data will be critical as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues its policy of ‘higher interest rates for longer.’ A lower-than-expected inflation reading might prompt the RBA to reconsider its stance, impacting AUDUSD and the ASX 200.
- Nvidia Earnings After the Close: Nvidia’s earnings report is highly anticipated, particularly by tech investors. The company’s performance and its guidance on AI investments will be crucial in determining market sentiment. Any negative surprises could lead to a broader tech sell-off, impacting the US Tech 100.
- USD Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30pm BST: Weekly crude oil inventory data is vital for energy markets. A larger-than-expected drawdown could push oil prices higher, influencing energy stocks and inflation expectations.
Thursday, 29th August
- EUR German Prelim CPI m/m – All Day: Germany’s preliminary inflation data will set the tone for Eurozone inflation expectations. A higher-than-expected reading could reduce the likelihood of an ECB rate cut, impacting EURUSD and European indices.
- USD Prelim GDP q/q – 1:30pm BST: The U.S. preliminary GDP report will be closely monitored as traders assess the likelihood of a recession. A weaker-than-expected print could increase the odds of more aggressive Fed rate cuts, which might weaken the dollar but support U.S. stock indices.
- USD Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm BST: Weekly jobless claims data will be scrutinized for signs of a weakening labor market. A rise in claims could signal economic slowing, affecting expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- USD Pending Home Sales m/m – 3:00pm BST: Pending home sales data will offer further insights into the U.S. housing market. A decline could indicate weakening demand, reinforcing concerns about economic growth.
Friday, 30th August
- JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y – 12:30am BST: Tokyo’s core CPI data is crucial for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook. Any deviation from market expectations could lead to significant movements in USDJPY and the Japan 225 index.
- AUD Retail Sales m/m – 2:30am BST: Australia’s retail sales data will be key in assessing consumer sentiment amidst high interest rates. A weaker-than-expected figure could weigh on the AUD and the ASX 200.
- EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 10:00am BST: The Eurozone’s flash inflation data is vital in shaping the ECB’s monetary policy. An upside surprise could prompt caution, impacting EURUSD and European stock markets.
- CAD GDP m/m – 1:30pm BST: Canada’s GDP data will be of interest to USDCAD traders. Weak growth could prompt further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, influencing the loonie.
- USD Core PCE Price Index m/m – 1:30pm BST: As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index will significantly influence market expectations for a September rate cut. A lower-than-expected reading could solidify the case for easing, affecting U.S. stock indices and the dollar.
- USD Chicago PMI – 2:45pm BST: The Chicago PMI will provide further insights into U.S. manufacturing activity. A weaker-than-expected result could heighten recession concerns and pressure U.S. markets.
- USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – 3:00pm BST: The University of Michigan’s revised consumer sentiment index will offer a final gauge of consumer confidence for August. Significant revisions could impact market sentiment as September approaches.
Saturday, 31st August
- CNY Manufacturing PMI – 2:30am BST: China’s manufacturing PMI is a crucial indicator of the country’s economic health. A reading below 50 could signal contraction, potentially affecting global markets.
- CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI – 2:30am BST: The non-manufacturing PMI will provide insights into China’s service sector performance. A strong reading could alleviate concerns about economic slowing, while a weaker number might weigh on global market sentiment.
