This week is packed with significant events, economic data releases, and earnings reports that could shape market movements. Investors are particularly focused on inflation data, central bank decisions, and retail earnings to gauge the health of the global economy and to predict potential monetary policy actions.
Sunday, August 11th:
- New Loans Data – Tentative BST: China’s new loans data will be in focus as it provides insights into the country’s lending conditions. This is a key indicator of economic activity and liquidity in the Chinese market, which can impact global commodity prices and markets sensitive to Chinese growth.
Monday, August 12th:
- Chinese Yuan New Loans Data – Tentative BST: China is expected to release its new loans data, which will offer insights into the effectiveness of the People’s Bank of China’s recent policy measures to stimulate the economy. A significant deviation from expectations could trigger volatility in global markets, especially in commodities and equities linked to Chinese demand.
Tuesday, August 13th:
- AUD Wage Price Index – 2:30am BST: The Australian Wage Price Index is a key indicator of wage inflation and is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). A stronger-than-expected increase could lead to further tightening of monetary policy.
- GBP Employment Data – 7:00am BST: The UK’s employment figures, including the Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings Index, will be scrutinized. Weaker employment data could increase expectations for further rate cuts from the Bank of England, impacting GBPUSD and UK equity indices.
- USD Core PPI – 1:30pm BST: The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, providing insights into inflationary pressures at the wholesale level. This data is important for gauging future consumer price movements and potential Federal Reserve actions.
Wednesday, August 14th:
- NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 3:00am BST: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to announce its interest rate decision. Markets are leaning towards a 25bps rate cut to support the economy. This decision, along with the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement and press conference, will be crucial for the NZD.
- GBP CPI Data – 7:00am BST: The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be closely watched, particularly by the Bank of England, as it assesses the inflation outlook. A higher-than-expected CPI could reduce the likelihood of further rate cuts.
- USD Inflation Data – 1:30pm BST: U.S. CPI data is pivotal this week as traders try to predict the Federal Reserve’s next move. A soft reading could bolster expectations for a September rate cut, while a strong number could do the opposite, impacting the direction of the USD and U.S. equity markets.
Thursday, August 15th:
- JPY Preliminary GDP – 12:50am BST: Japan’s Preliminary GDP data will be released, and any surprise in economic growth could significantly impact the JPY and Japanese equity markets. High volatility is expected, especially after the Bank of Japan’s recent policy shift.
- AUD Employment Data – 2:30am BST: Australia’s employment figures are set to be released. This data will influence the RBA’s next steps, particularly if unemployment starts to rise. The direction of AUDUSD and the ASX 200 could be heavily impacted.
- China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – 3:00am BST: China’s industrial production and retail sales figures are critical indicators of the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Stronger-than-expected numbers could support global markets, particularly commodities and equities.
- USD Retail Sales – 1:30pm BST: U.S. retail sales data is another crucial indicator of consumer spending, a major driver of the U.S. economy. This data will be closely monitored as traders assess the likelihood of a recession and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Friday, August 16th:
- AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks – 12:30am BST: The speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia could provide insights into future monetary policy, especially in light of recent employment and wage data.
- GBP Retail Sales – 7:00am BST: UK retail sales data will give further insights into the health of consumer spending. A rebound is expected after a decline in the previous month. This data will be crucial for determining the Bank of England’s next moves.
- USD Building Permits – 1:30pm BST: U.S. building permits data will be released, offering insights into the future of the housing market, a significant component of economic activity.
- USD Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment – 3:00pm BST: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will provide the final piece of the puzzle for the week, giving traders insights into consumer confidence and inflation expectations.
Earnings Highlights:
- This week marks the tail end of earnings season, but there are still a few key reports to watch, particularly in the retail sector.
Oil Market Focus:
- Oil prices have been on the rise, supported by comments from Fed officials suggesting possible rate cuts in September, which eased demand concerns. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Any developments in the region could cause sharp movements in oil markets.
