Monday, 24th February:
- EUR – German Ifo Business Climate – 9:00am GMT: The Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to remain steady at 85.2. Given the recent German election results, with the business-friendly CDU/CSU winning, markets may react positively if the index shows signs of economic stability. However, any signs of business pessimism could weigh on the euro and the Germany 40 index.
- USD – President Trump Speaks – Time: Tentative: Markets will closely monitor US President Donald Trump’s speech for insights into trade policies and potential tariffs, particularly with the looming March 1st deadline for Mexico and Canada. Any hawkish trade rhetoric could impact the USD, as well as global equities.
Tuesday, 25th February:
- USD – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y – 2:00pm GMT: The housing price index is expected to remain at 4.3%, reflecting stability in the US housing market. The data may not be a significant market mover unless it surprises to the upside or downside, potentially affecting USD and US stock indices.
- USD – CB Consumer Confidence – 3:00pm GMT: Consumer confidence is expected to dip slightly to 103.3 from 104.1. A lower reading could indicate that declining confidence is starting to affect spending, raising concerns about future US economic growth and impacting the USD and US stock indices.
- USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index – 3:00pm GMT: The index is forecasted at -2, an improvement from the previous -4. If the data comes in stronger than expected, it could provide support for the USD and suggest resilience in the US manufacturing sector.
Wednesday, 26th February:
- AUD – CPI y/y – 12:30am GMT: Australia’s inflation is expected to increase to 2.6% from 2.5%. The RBA, after cutting rates recently, will be looking for signs that inflation is moderating. A higher reading might support the AUD and the ASX 200, while a lower print could increase expectations for further rate cuts.
- USD – New Home Sales – 3:00pm GMT: New home sales are projected at 677K, down from 698K previously. Slowing sales could signal a cooling housing market, potentially impacting the USD and US real estate stocks.
- USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30pm GMT: With recent volatility in oil prices, this inventory data could influence commodity markets. A significant build or drawdown in inventories could impact WTI crude prices and related markets.
- G20 Meetings – All Day: The first day of the G20 meetings could lead to market-moving statements, particularly concerning global trade policies and economic outlooks. The USD, EUR, and global indices may experience volatility.
Thursday, 27th February:
- CHF – GDP q/q – 8:00am GMT: Swiss GDP is expected to grow by 0.2%, down from 0.4%. Weaker growth could weigh on the CHF, while a surprise to the upside might support the currency.
- EUR – Spanish Flash CPI y/y – 8:00am GMT: Expected at 3.0%, a higher inflation print could bolster the euro by supporting expectations for tighter ECB monetary policy.
- USD – Prelim GDP q/q – 1:30pm GMT: US preliminary GDP is expected to hold steady at 2.3%. Any deviation from this forecast could influence USD pairs and US equity markets.
- USD – Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm GMT: Forecasted at 220K, a lower-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD by signaling a tight labor market.
- USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – 1:30pm GMT: Core durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.4%, while overall durable goods orders may jump 2.0%, reversing the previous decline. Stronger orders could support the USD and indicate robust business investment.
- USD – Pending Home Sales m/m – 3:00pm GMT: A smaller contraction of -1.3% is expected compared to the previous -5.5%. If sales exceed expectations, this could support the USD and US housing-related stocks.
- G20 Meetings – All Day: Continued discussions at the G20 may bring additional market-moving headlines, particularly if major economies outline new trade or fiscal policies.
Friday, 28th February:
- EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m – All Day: Germany’s preliminary CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, a reversal from the previous -0.2%. With the new government potentially considering fiscal easing, stronger inflation data could support the euro.
- CAD – GDP m/m – 1:30pm GMT: Canada’s GDP is expected to rise by 0.3% following a previous contraction of -0.2%. A positive reading could strengthen the CAD, while a miss might add pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut rates.
- USD – Core PCE Price Index m/m – 1:30pm GMT: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to increase by 0.3%. This data will be critical for market expectations regarding future Fed policy. A higher reading could support the USD, while a softer print might boost stocks and gold.
- USD – Chicago PMI – 2:45pm GMT: The manufacturing index is forecasted at 40.3, slightly up from 39.5. Any upside surprise could indicate stabilization in the US manufacturing sector, supporting the USD.
This week, the focus will remain on inflation data, GDP releases, and potential geopolitical developments, especially surrounding the German election and G20 meetings. Market participants should be prepared for potential volatility in EUR, USD, AUD, and CAD currency pairs, as well as in global equity and commodity markets.
