Monday, 29th July:
No major events scheduled.
Tuesday, 30th July:
- USD Consumer Confidence – 3:00pm BST: With recent weakening in consumer confidence, traders will closely watch this data as it could lead to less spending from US consumers, lower economic growth, and disappointing earnings for US companies later in the year.
- Technology Earnings: Microsoft reports after the close. Following last week’s negative reactions to Tesla and Alphabet’s earnings, traders are anxious about high valuations and earnings expectations. Any underperformance could increase downside pressure on tech stocks.
- USD JOLTS Job Openings – Time TBD: Data on job openings in the US, providing insights into labor market conditions.
Wednesday, 31st July:
- China PMIs – 2:30am BST: Both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are due. Continued signs of slowdown could prompt more actions from the PBOC, impacting risk sentiment, commodities, and the direction of AUD and EUR.
- BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference – 4:00am/6:30am BST: USDJPY traders are keenly awaiting this decision. A second rate hike in 2024 could increase the downside move in USDJPY, while inaction could see a reversal. The BoJ concludes its latest policy-setting meeting, and speculation over the prospect of a rate hike is mounting after high-profile politicians, including the prime minister, hinted at the need for near-term policy normalization
- EUR Preliminary Inflation Data (HICP) – 10:00am BST: This update is crucial as the ECB is reluctant to commit to further rate cuts until more data is seen. A lower reading could support another 25bp cut in September, affecting EURUSD and European indices.
- US Technology Earnings: Meta reports after the close. Following mixed reactions to recent tech earnings, traders are cautious about potential underperformance impacting market sentiment.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 1:15pm BST: Provides a preview of the official nonfarm payrolls data, crucial for assessing the labor market.
- USD Employment Cost Index – 1:30pm BST: Offers insights into wage inflation.
- USD Chicago PMI – 2:45pm BST: This index provides a snapshot of manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
- USD Pending Home Sales – 3:00pm BST: Data on home sales, indicating the health of the housing market.
- Fed Interest Rate Decision – 7:00pm/7:30pm BST: The main event of the week. With markets currently pricing high chances of a September rate cut amid signs of cooling inflation and an uptick in the unemployment rate, this week’s policy statement by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be firmly in the spotlight. While no change is expected, Chairman Powell’s comments on inflation, the economy, and potential September rate cuts will be critical for market direction.
Thursday, 1st August:
- BoE Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference – 12:00pm/12:30pm BST: Investors are divided on whether the BoE will cut rates. The level of uncertainty is higher than usual in the run-up to the meeting, as key central bank officials have not spoken publicly for over two months due to rules in the lead-up to Britain’s July 4th general election. If there is no change, Governor Bailey’s comments will be pivotal, affecting the UK 100 and GBPUSD.
- Technology Earnings: Apple and Amazon report after the close. Following the previous week’s mixed tech earnings, any underperformance could further roil the markets.
- USD Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm BST: Weekly data providing insights into the labor market.
- USD ISM Manufacturing PMI – 2:45pm BST: Indicates the health of the manufacturing sector.
- G20 Meetings – Day 1: Key discussions among major economies that could influence global markets.
Friday, 2nd August:
- USD Non-Farm Payrolls – 1:30pm BST: Wednesday’s Fed statement will put the already closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, due out on Friday, under heightened scrutiny as investors try to gauge whether recent signs of cooling in the labor market continued in July. Economists expect the US economy to have created 177,000 jobs in July, moderating from 206,000 in the prior month.
- G20 Meetings – Day 2: Continued discussions among major economies, impacting global market directions.
- USD Average Hourly Earnings – 1:30pm BST: Provides insights into wage inflation.
- Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – 3:00pm BST: Final insights into consumer sentiment, influencing market expectations.
This week promises significant market movements with key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, alongside crucial economic data and major tech earnings. Stay tuned for updates and market reactions.
