Monday, 17th February:
- USD – FOMC Member Waller Speaks – 11:00pm GMT: Fed member Christopher Waller is expected to give a speech that may shed light on the Federal Reserve’s current stance on monetary policy. Any remarks hinting at future rate hikes or changes in the Fed’s economic outlook could move USD markets. Traders will be keen to assess whether the Fed’s hawkish stance persists, especially given recent inflation data. His speech could influence USD pairs, particularly with the euro, yen, and pound.
Tuesday, 18th February:
- AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision – 3:30am GMT: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to reduce the cash rate to 4.10%, following the persistent inflationary pressures despite slowing growth. A rate cut may provide some relief to the Australian economy, but it could also weaken the Australian dollar in the short term. Traders will be watching closely for any forward guidance on further rate cuts from the RBA, especially after disappointing inflation data for Q4 2024.
- AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference – 4:30am GMT: Following the rate decision, RBA Governor Lowe will hold a press conference. This is an important opportunity for traders to gauge the RBA’s tone regarding future policy moves and its economic outlook. Any dovish remarks may weigh on the Australian dollar.
- GBP – Claimant Count Change & Average Earnings Index – 7:00am GMT: The UK’s claimant count data will provide insight into the strength of the labor market, and the average earnings index will be closely watched to understand inflationary pressures on wages. A higher-than-expected reading could give the GBP a boost, but any signs of weakening wage growth might prompt concerns about the BoE’s ability to tighten policy.
- EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 10:00am GMT: This release will provide a snapshot of investor sentiment in Germany, one of the eurozone’s largest economies. A better-than-expected reading could support the euro, while a disappointing result may fuel concerns about the region’s economic slowdown.
- CAD – CPI Data (January) – 1:30pm GMT: The Canadian inflation report will be a key data point for the Bank of Canada as it assesses its next moves. If inflation persists, CAD may strengthen as traders anticipate the BoC maintaining a hawkish stance. However, any signs of inflation cooling could lead to a weaker CAD, as the market may expect slower rate hikes.
- USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index – 1:30pm GMT: The Empire State Manufacturing Index will give a glimpse into the health of the New York region’s manufacturing sector. A reading above expectations could support the US dollar, while a weak report might raise concerns about the broader manufacturing sector and its impact on the economy.
Wednesday, 19th February:
- AUD – Wage Price Index (Q4 2024) – 12:30am GMT: The Wage Price Index will show the rate of growth in wages across Australia. A higher-than-expected result could signal stronger inflationary pressures, which may influence the RBA’s future rate decisions. If wages remain subdued, the RBA may continue its dovish stance.
- NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 1:00am GMT: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut its official cash rate to 3.75%. A 50-basis-point cut has been speculated due to a weaker-than-expected domestic economy. The NZD could experience volatility around this event, with traders reacting to the accompanying monetary policy statement and comments from RBNZ officials.
- GBP – CPI Data – 7:00am GMT: UK inflation data will be crucial for the Bank of England’s decision-making process. If inflation shows signs of resilience, the BoE may have to take a more cautious approach to easing monetary policy, which could support the GBP. A weaker-than-expected print may increase dovish bets for the BoE.
- USD – Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes – 7:00pm GMT: The release of the Fed’s minutes from its January meeting will provide further insights into the central bank’s thinking on the economy and interest rates. Any hawkish signals, particularly around inflation and employment, could support the USD, while dovish comments may raise doubts about the Fed’s trajectory.
Thursday, 20th February:
- AUD – Australian Employment Data – 12:30am GMT: January’s Australian employment figures will provide important insight into the labor market’s strength. A strong jobs report could support the Australian dollar, while a weaker print could add pressure on the RBA to adopt more aggressive monetary easing.
- GBP – Nationwide House Prices – 7:00am GMT: UK house price data will reflect the housing market’s health, providing an indirect look at consumer sentiment and wealth effects. A stronger housing market could support the pound, whereas any slowdown may highlight broader economic concerns.
- USD – Philly Fed Business Index – 1:30pm GMT: The Philly Fed Business Index will give an update on economic activity in the Philadelphia region. A positive reading could indicate resilience in the US economy, further supporting USD strength.
- EUR – Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Confidence – 2:00pm GMT: Consumer confidence is a key indicator of economic sentiment in the eurozone. A stronger-than-expected print could signal optimism, potentially supporting the euro. Weakness in the report, on the other hand, may highlight concerns about the region’s economic recovery.
Friday, 21st February:
- Global Preliminary PMI Surveys : The PMI surveys from Australia, Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the US will provide a forward-looking view on economic activity. A reading above 50 suggests economic expansion, while a print below 50 indicates contraction. The key focus will be on the US, UK, and Eurozone data, with any signs of economic deceleration potentially influencing market sentiment.
- JPY – Japan CPI – 11:30pm GMT: Japan’s CPI for January will provide a closer look at inflationary pressures in the country. A higher-than-expected result could support the yen, especially if it bolsters expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.
- GBP – Retail Sales – 7:00am GMT: UK retail sales data will reveal consumer spending trends. A stronger-than-expected report could provide a boost to the pound, suggesting that the UK consumer remains resilient amid broader economic uncertainty.
- CAD – Canada Retail Sales – 1:30pm GMT: Canada’s retail sales data will be scrutinized for signs of consumer confidence and spending behaviour. A weak reading could suggest caution among consumers, potentially weighing on the loonie.
- USD – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) – 3:00pm GMT: The final consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan will provide insight into US consumer confidence. A higher-than-expected reading could indicate optimism, supporting the US dollar. Any weakness in sentiment may raise concerns about future economic growth.
This week, markets will be focused on central bank decisions, inflation data, and employment reports, all of which will shape the outlook for key currencies and global risk sentiment. Keep an eye on the major events for potential volatility, especially in USD, AUD, GBP, and NZD.
