Monday, 3rd February:
- AUD – Retail Sales m/m – 12:30am GMT:
Australian retail sales unexpectedly declined by 0.1% against an expected 0.7% increase, signaling potential consumer caution. This could weigh on the AUD and increase speculation about future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). - EUR – Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 10:00am GMT:
The Eurozone’s core inflation rate came in at 2.7%, slightly above expectations of 2.6%, suggesting that underlying inflation remains sticky. This data may impact the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision-making in the coming months and influence the EUR’s performance. - EUR – CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 10:00am GMT:
The headline CPI inflation rate matched forecasts at 2.5%, up from 2.4% previously. While inflation appears to be stabilizing, it remains a key focus for ECB policymakers ahead of their next meeting in March. - OPEC-JMMC Meetings – All Day:
Oil markets will be watching closely as OPEC and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) discuss potential supply adjustments. Any decisions on output cuts or increases could drive volatility in crude prices. - USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI – 3:00pm GMT:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained at 49.3, marking the tenth consecutive month below the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion. However, the improvement in ISM Manufacturing Prices to 52.6 suggests input costs are rising, potentially impacting inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy.
Tuesday, 4th February:
- USD – JOLTs Job Openings – 3:00pm GMT:
Job openings declined to 7.88 million from a previous 8.10 million, indicating a slight cooling in the U.S. labor market. Given the upcoming ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls reports, this could shape sentiment towards the USD and Fed policy expectations. - NZD – Employment Data – 9:45pm GMT:
New Zealand’s employment change contracted by 0.2%, although an improvement from the prior quarter’s -0.5% decline. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 5.1%, above the forecasted 4.8%, raising concerns about labor market softness and potential RBNZ policy responses.
Wednesday, 5th February:
- USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 1:15pm GMT:
The ADP report showed 149K jobs added in January, exceeding the previous 122K but still indicating a slower hiring pace compared to recent months. This will be a key indicator ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release. - USD – ISM Services PMI – 3:00pm GMT:
The services PMI edged higher to 54.2, maintaining its expansionary stance and reinforcing the strength of the U.S. services sector. This could boost U.S. stock markets and strengthen the dollar. - USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 3:30pm GMT:
A build of 3.5M barrels is expected, which may weigh on oil prices unless offset by supply concerns from the OPEC meetings.
Thursday, 6th February:
- GBP – BoE Monetary Policy Report & Rate Decision – 12:00pm GMT:
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates to 4.50% from 4.75%, with an 8-1 vote supporting the decision. Investors will analyze the Monetary Policy Report for further guidance on future rate paths and inflation outlooks. The GBP may experience increased volatility during and after Governor Bailey’s press conference at 12:30pm GMT. - USD – Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm GMT:
Weekly jobless claims rose to 214K from 207K, signaling a slight softening in the labor market. This data, combined with previous labor reports, could shape expectations for the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release. - CAD – Ivey PMI – 3:00pm GMT:
The Canadian Ivey PMI slipped to 53.0 from 54.7, indicating slower growth in business activity. This could weigh on the CAD if the trend continues.
Friday, 7th February:
- CAD – Employment Data – 1:30pm GMT:
Canada’s employment change came in at 26.5K, a sharp decline from the previous 90.9K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.8%, suggesting a cooling labor market that could influence the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook. - USD – Non-Farm Payrolls – 1:30pm GMT:
The highlight of the week, Non-Farm Payrolls, is expected to add 154K jobs, a significant drop from December’s blockbuster 256K. If the actual number exceeds expectations, it could push the USD higher and dampen Fed rate cut hopes. Conversely, a weak report may boost expectations of looser monetary policy. - USD – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 3:00pm GMT:
Consumer sentiment is forecasted at 71.4, slightly up from 71.1. A positive surprise could support U.S. equities, while a weaker number might raise concerns about consumer spending resilience. - USD – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations – 3:00pm GMT:
Inflation expectations remain steady at 3.3%. Any deviation from this could impact market pricing for future Fed decisions.
This calendar captures the key economic events, releases, and their potential market impacts for the week.
