Monday, 27th January:
- CNY – Manufacturing PMI – 1:30am GMT:
China’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. This contraction signals weakness in China’s manufacturing sector, raising concerns about global demand and potentially affecting the China A50 and Hong Kong 50 indices. - CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI – 1:30am GMT:
China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, just above the expansionary threshold but below the previous 52.2. This may suggest slower growth in China’s services sector, adding pressure on policymakers to implement further stimulus. - EUR – German Ifo Business Climate – 9:00am GMT:
The German Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 85.1, slightly exceeding expectations of 84.9. This modest improvement signals that business sentiment in Germany is stabilizing, which could support the EUR and European equity markets. - USD – New Home Sales – 3:00pm GMT:
S. new home sales surged to 698K, beating the forecast of 669K. This indicates continued strength in the housing market, potentially boosting U.S. stock indices and the USD.
Tuesday, 28th January:
- USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 1:30pm GMT:
Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.3%, beating the forecast of -0.2%. This positive surprise reflects underlying strength in business investment, which could support the USD and U.S. equity markets. - USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – 1:30pm GMT:
Durable Goods Orders grew by 0.1%, exceeding expectations of -1.2%. This signals resilience in the manufacturing sector and may positively influence U.S. indices. - USD – CB Consumer Confidence – 3:00pm GMT:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 105.9, above the forecast of 104.7. This suggests strong consumer sentiment, which is a key driver of U.S. economic growth and could bolster the USD. - USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index – 3:00pm GMT:
The Richmond Manufacturing Index improved to -8 from the forecast of -10, indicating less severe contraction in the sector. This could provide modest support to the USD.
Wednesday, 29th January:
- AUD – CPI q/q – 12:30am GMT:
Australia’s CPI rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, beating expectations of 0.2%. This slight increase in inflation may reduce the likelihood of immediate RBA rate cuts, supporting the AUD. - AUD – CPI y/y – 12:30am GMT:
Annual CPI climbed to 2.5%, higher than the forecast of 2.3%. This indicates steady inflationary pressures, which could influence the RBA’s monetary policy stance. - CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision – 2:45pm GMT:
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its overnight rate to 3.00% from 3.25%. This decision could weigh on the CAD if the BoC signals further rate cuts ahead. - USD – Federal Funds Rate – 7:00pm GMT:
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to leave rates unchanged at 4.50%. Market attention will shift to the FOMC statement and Chair Powell’s press conference for signals on the Fed’s future policy direction, which could drive volatility in U.S. indices and the USD. - USD – FOMC Press Conference – 7:30pm GMT:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address inflation concerns and growth projections. Traders will analyze his remarks for any indication of potential rate cuts later in 2025.
Thursday, 30th January:
- EUR – Main Refinancing Rate – 1:15pm GMT:
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates to 2.90% from 3.15%. Traders will closely watch for further guidance on the ECB’s rate trajectory, which could impact the EUR. - USD – Advance GDP q/q – 1:30pm GMT:
S. GDP growth for Q4 is forecasted at 2.7%, down from the previous 3.1%. This key economic release will likely influence U.S. indices and the USD, as slower growth could heighten concerns about the economy’s momentum. - EUR – ECB Press Conference – 1:45pm GMT:
ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks following the rate decision will be critical for assessing future monetary policy. Traders will focus on her comments regarding inflation trends and growth outlook, which could drive EUR/USD. - USD – Pending Home Sales m/m – 3:00pm GMT:
Pending Home Sales are forecasted to decline by 1.0%. This measure provides insights into the housing market’s strength and could influence U.S. stock market sentiment.
Friday, 31st January:
- EUR – German Prelim CPI m/m – All Day:
German inflation data is expected to grow by 0.1%, down from the previous 0.5%. This slowdown could weigh on the EUR if inflationary pressures remain subdued. - USD – Core PCE Price Index m/m – 1:30pm GMT:
The U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is forecasted to rise by 0.2%. Any deviation from expectations may influence Fed policy projections and drive USD volatility. - USD – Employment Cost Index q/q – 1:30pm GMT:
Employment costs are projected to grow by 0.9%, indicating potential wage pressures. This could support the USD if the data exceeds expectations. - USD – Chicago PMI – 2:45pm GMT:
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expected at 40.6, a rise from 36.9. This measure of regional manufacturing activity could influence U.S. equity markets and the USD.
This calendar captures the key economic events, releases, and their potential market impacts for the week.
