Monday, 30th December:
- EUR – Spanish Flash CPI y/y – 9:00am GMT
Spain’s consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 2.8% year-over-year, up from the previous 2.6%. With inflation still a key concern for the Eurozone, a higher-than-expected figure could strengthen the euro, while a lower print might weigh on it. - USD – Chicago PMI – 3:45pm GMT
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is forecasted to improve to 42.7 from 40.2 previously. Though still below the 50-point threshold signalling contraction, this uptick could indicate a slight recovery in industrial sentiment, influencing US equity markets. - USD – Pending Home Sales m/m – 4:00pm GMT
Pending home sales are anticipated to grow by 0.9%, slowing from the prior 2.0% increase. This indicator is closely watched for clues about the US housing market’s resilience, with implications for the broader economy and stock markets.
Tuesday, 31st December:
- CNY – Manufacturing PMI – 2:30am GMT
China’s manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady at 50.3, signalling modest expansion. This data will be closely analysed for signs of economic stability after the government’s stimulus measures in 2024. - CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI – 2:30am GMT
Similarly, the non-manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 50.2, just above the expansion threshold. A better-than-expected reading could bolster optimism for China’s recovery and influence markets like the China A50 and commodities tied to Chinese demand. - USD – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y – 3:00pm GMT
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is expected to rise by 4.1%, down from 4.6% previously. This data provides insight into the US housing market’s pricing trends, potentially impacting consumer sentiment and related stocks.
Thursday, 2nd January:
- USD – Unemployment Claims – 2:30pm GMT
Initial jobless claims for the final week of 2024 are projected at 220K, similar to the previous 219K. As the first major labour market release of the year, this data could drive market volatility, with significant deviations likely to impact the dollar and equity indices. - USD – Final Manufacturing PMI – 3:45pm GMT
The final reading for December’s Manufacturing PMI is expected at 48.3, confirming ongoing contraction. Investors will scrutinize the employment and new orders components for early signs of 2025’s industrial health. - USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 5:00pm GMT
Energy traders will closely watch this release, as it reflects crude oil supply levels heading into the new year. The data could influence WTI and Brent oil prices, alongside related stocks.
Friday, 3rd January:
- USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI – 4:00pm GMT
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected at 48.3, a slight decline from November’s 48.4. As the first key US economic release of 2025, this report will be watched for insights into manufacturing activity and its employment subindex, with potential market-moving implications. - USD – ISM Manufacturing Prices – 4:00pm GMT
Prices paid by manufacturers are forecasted to edge up to 50.5 from 50.3. This metric will be pivotal in assessing inflationary pressures within the industrial sector, influencing Federal Reserve expectations.
Keep an eye on end-of-year portfolio rebalancing flows early in the week, which could add volatility to equity, FX, and commodity markets. With lighter trading volumes due to the holidays, any surprises in the data could amplify price movements across global markets.
