Monday, 22nd July:
- PBOC Interest Rate Decision – 2:15am BST: With China’s economy showing signs of weakness, the People’s Bank of China faces a significant decision. An interest rate cut could support risk sentiment towards the China A50 and Hong Kong 50 indices but may also drive the currency lower and increase capital outflows, a scenario the PBOC aims to avoid.
Tuesday, 23rd July:
- Technology Earnings: Tesla and Alphabet report after the close. Recent rotation away from technology stocks to small caps and industrials, as Fed rate cuts get closer, has traders anxious about the 2024 uptrend. High valuations and earnings expectations mean any disappointment could increase downside pressure, while stronger numbers could reverse last week’s declines.
- USD Existing Home Sales – 3:00pm BST: The existing home sales data will offer insights into the housing market’s health, potentially impacting the USD.
- Richmond Manufacturing Index – 3:00pm BST: This index will provide insights into manufacturing conditions, affecting economic forecasts and market sentiment.
Wednesday, 24th July:
- Global Preliminary PMIs (AUD, JPY, EUR, GBP, USD): These releases will provide a health check on growth in major economies. Readings above 50 suggest expansion, while below 50 indicate contraction. Focus will be on US and Eurozone readings to see if recent weak data trends continue, supporting potential Fed and ECB rate cuts in September.
- Eurozone Flash PMIs – 9:00am BST: The ECB has indicated that its future monetary policy decisions will be data-dependent. The market consensus suggests moderate acceleration in services activity with a slower contraction in manufacturing compared to June. While these figures might not immediately change rate cut expectations, they could support a recovery in the Euro.
- UK Flash PMIs – 9:30am BST: The UK faces a similar scenario, with markets expecting some easing in August. However, strong economic momentum and persistent inflation could delay rate cuts. Positive PMI numbers could indicate a strong start to Q3, possibly keeping interest rates at restrictive levels and providing upside risk for the Pound.
- BoC Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference – 2:45pm / 3:30pm BST: The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps for the second consecutive month to support a slowing economy, influenced by a recent CPI reading trending towards the 2% target. The decision and subsequent press conference will affect the USDCAD direction. Despite the market fully pricing in a 25bps cut, some CAD recovery is possible once the rate cut is confirmed unless the bank surprises with a 50bps cut.
- French Flash PMIs – 8:15am BST: Early indicators of economic health for France.
- German Flash PMIs – 8:30am BST: Key indicators for Germany’s economic performance.
- Eurozone Flash PMIs – 9:00am BST: Provide a broader view of the Eurozone’s economic health.
- UK Flash PMIs – 9:30am BST: Indicators for the UK’s manufacturing and services sectors.
- US Flash PMIs – 2:45pm BST: Provide insights into the US economy’s performance in manufacturing and services sectors.
- USD New Home Sales – 3:00pm BST: Data on new home sales, crucial for assessing the housing market’s health.
Thursday, 25th July:
- USD Preliminary GDP – 1:30pm BST: Despite recognition of slowing US economic growth, stock traders remain optimistic about a soft landing rather than a recession, supporting gains in the USA 30 and USA 2000 indices. A downside surprise could increase uncertainty and prompt profit-taking. The GDP is expected to show moderate acceleration in Q2 after a sharp slowdown in Q1. Strong GDP and Durable Goods reports could boost the USD, especially if GDP shows a significant annual advance of 3% or higher, potentially crushing hopes for a September Fed rate cut.
- USD Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm BST: Weekly data on unemployment claims, providing insights into the labor market.
- Advance GDP Price Index – 1:30pm BST: This index will offer insights into price changes in the economy.
- Core Durable Goods Orders – 1:30pm BST: Provides data on orders for long-lasting goods, excluding transportation.
- Durable Goods Orders – 1:30pm BST: Offers a broader look at orders for durable goods.
- ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 4:00pm BST: Remarks from President Lagarde will be crucial for understanding the ECB’s future monetary policy direction.
- G20 Meetings – Day 1: Key discussions among major economies that could influence global markets.
Friday, 26th July:
- JPY Tokyo CPI – 12:30am BST: Ahead of the July BoJ rate meeting, this inflation reading will be scrutinized to determine if it justifies another small rate hike, affecting the Japan 225 and USDJPY.
- USD PCE Index, Personal Income, and Spending – 1:30pm BST: As the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, this release could confirm recent trader expectations for a September rate cut, impacting all markets. The PCE Price Index is expected to have risen by 0.1% in June, bringing the annualized core inflation closer to the 2% target. If the GDP report does not show a sharp rebound, these PCE levels would confirm a “Goldilocks” economy of softening inflation without recession risk, supporting Fed doves and increasing hopes for a September rate cut.
- Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – 3:00pm BST: Final insights into consumer sentiment, influencing market expectations.
- G20 Meetings – Day 2: Continued discussions among major economies, impacting global market directions.
