Tuesday, 8th October
- RBA Meeting Minutes – 1:30 am BST: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from its September meeting. Traders are eager to see how close the central bank came to raising interest rates. With AUDUSD and the ASX 200 recently retreating from their highs, the report will offer insights into the RBA’s decision-making process, providing direction for the Australian economy in the near term.
Wednesday, 9th October
- AUD Consumer Confidence – 12:30 am BST: Australian consumer confidence data is an important economic indicator, as the level of consumer confidence heavily influences spending patterns. Higher confidence generally signals a stronger economy and corporate earnings growth, while low confidence suggests caution in consumer behavior, potentially impacting economic growth.
- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 2:00 am BST: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut rates, with market participants divided between a 25bps or 50bps reduction. This decision could trigger heightened volatility in the NZDUSD pair, particularly as the economy continues to struggle with rising unemployment. The RBNZ is following the Federal Reserve’s trend of monetary easing, and a larger-than-expected cut would have broader implications for currency markets.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes – 7:00 pm BST: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its September meeting, offering valuable insights into the rationale behind the 50bps rate cut and what might come next. Market participants will be eager to see whether the Fed remains on track for further cuts this year. Additionally, traders will be paying attention to comments from Fed officials throughout the week, including speeches from Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Adriana Kugler, and Lorie Logan. This information could help shape expectations regarding future monetary policy decisions.
Thursday, 10th October
- USD Inflation Data (CPI) – 1:30 pm BST: All eyes will be on Thursday’s U.S. CPI data for September, a critical release following last week’s stronger-than-expected jobs report. If inflation continues to soften, it would provide the Federal Reserve with more room to proceed with additional rate cuts. However, a surprise increase in inflation could complicate the Fed’s easing cycle and trigger volatility in the dollar and equity markets.
- CNY New Loans – Tentative: China’s new loans report will offer a window into credit conditions and economic growth in the country. An uptick in loans could suggest strengthening demand, while a decline may signal economic weakness. This data is important for gauging China’s role in global economic growth, especially amid ongoing global uncertainty.
Friday, 11th October
- GBP GDP m/m – 7:00 am BST: UK GDP data is set to be released early Friday, with implications for both the pound (GBPUSD) and the UK stock market (UK 100). Resilient growth would support the Bank of England’s more cautious approach to cutting rates, while any weaker-than-expected data could prompt more urgency for monetary easing.
- USD Core PPI & PPI m/m – 1:30 pm BST: The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide another critical view of inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. A softer PPI reading could reinforce expectations that inflation is cooling, making room for additional rate cuts. However, any upside surprise could fuel concerns that inflation is still more persistent than anticipated, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
- US Q3 Earnings Season – All Day: The U.S. third-quarter earnings season kicks off, with major banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BNY Mellon reporting. These results will offer valuable insights into the health of the financial sector and broader economic conditions. Investors will focus on loan demand and potential credit risks, as well as management outlooks for the U.S. economy. Bank earnings could be an early indicator of how the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is impacting both consumers and businesses.
- Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – 3:00 pm BST: The preliminary reading for October’s consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan will be crucial in assessing the mood of the U.S. consumer. With the consumer driving much of the growth in the U.S. economy, a positive sentiment reading would bolster hopes for continued expansion, while a decline could raise concerns about slowing consumer activity.
These events and data releases are pivotal for traders and investors, offering insights into economic trends and influencing market directions across various asset classes. Stay updated for potential market shifts and opportunities.
