Middle-East tensions escalate to new heights:
Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend resulted in intercepted drones and missiles, leaving the government at a crossroads between yielding to US pressure for restraint or succumbing to the demands of extremists advocating for retaliation. Presently, moderate voices prevail, bolstering stocks and dampening oil prices. However, a potential escalation, particularly one jeopardizing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger a surge in oil prices and sour market sentiment.
Monday, April 15th:
– US Retail Sales – 13:30 BST: Expectations lean towards a modest 0.4% increase for March following February’s 0.6% rise. Recent discrepancies between projections and actual figures underscore the importance of closely monitoring both headline and Control Group retail sales, with revisions capable of influencing market reactions.
Tuesday, April 16th:
– Chinese GDP – 03:00 BST: Forecasts anticipate a 4.8% year-on-year growth rate for Q1, marginally below the previous quarter’s 5.2%. Market reactions, particularly in the Australian Dollar and stock markets, hinge on China’s economic performance, especially in key sectors like electric vehicles and Artificial Intelligence.
– CAD Inflation Data (CPI) – 13:30 BST: Of significance to the Bank of Canada and USDCAD traders, amid signals of a looming rate cut. Remarks from BOC Gov. Macklem and Fed Chairman Powell later in the day could shape market sentiment, particularly concerning inflation trends and geopolitical developments. Macklem and Powell are scheduled to speak at 17:15 BST at the Wilson Center’s Washington Forum, in Washington DC.
Wednesday, April 17th:
– UK CPI – 07:00 BST: A potential decrease in inflation from February’s 3.4% year-on-year figure may prompt speculation about rate cuts by the Bank of England. BOE Gov. Bailey’s speech later in the day could offer further insights into the UK’s economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. Bailey is set to speak at 16:00 BST at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum, in Washington DC.
Thursday, April 18th:
– AUD Employment Data – 02:30 BST: Following unexpectedly robust employment figures last month, scrutiny intensifies on the resilience of the Australian job market. The outcome of this release could influence movements in AUDUSD and the ASX 200.
– US Jobless Claims – 13:30 BST: Market attention shifts to weekly unemployment claims, with a potential uptick signaling shifts in labor market dynamics. Any deviation above 220K may fuel speculation regarding the timing of future rate cuts.
Friday, April 19th:
– JPY Inflation Data (CPI) – 00:30 BST: With USDJPY nearing 154 highs, market focus sharpens on the Bank of Japan’s stance on interest rates, contingent upon inflation trends. This release could sway market sentiment and impact the trajectory of USDJPY.
