Monday, 13th May:
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NZD Inflation Expectations q/q – 4:00am BST:
New Zealand’s inflation expectations remained steady at 2.33% quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations. This data release provides insights into inflationary pressures within the New Zealand economy, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Tuesday, 14th May:
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GBP Claimant Count Change – 7:00am BST:
The UK’s claimant count change is forecasted to rise to 13.9K from 10.9K previously. This metric measures the number of unemployed individuals claiming unemployment-related benefits, serving as a gauge of the health of the UK labour market. The outcome of these releases could influence market perceptions regarding the trajectory of UK monetary policy, particularly amidst recent signals suggesting a possible rate cut by the Bank of England in June.
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USD Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m – 1:30pm BST:
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected to show a 0.2% increase in core PPI and a 0.3% increase in overall PPI month-on-month. These figures offer insights into inflationary pressures at the producer level, which can influence future consumer price trends and monetary policy decisions.
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USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks – 3:00pm BST:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech holds significant weight, particularly amidst market expectations for potential rate cuts based on weaker inflation and labour market data. Powell’s remarks could provide clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy stance and its response to recent economic developments.
Wednesday, 15th May:
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AUD Wage Price Index q/q – 2:30am BST:
Australia’s Wage Price Index is projected to increase by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, up from the previous 0.9%. This data offers insights into wage growth trends in Australia, influencing consumer spending and inflation expectations.
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Eurozone GDP and CPI Figures:
Europe steps into the spotlight with the release of Q1 GDP data. Market forecasts anticipate modest growth, with particular interest in Germany’s return to positive growth. Additionally, attention is drawn to the final reading of April CPI figures, which could impact expectations regarding potential ECB rate cuts. Any deviations from expectations in GDP or inflation data may steer market sentiment and influence the direction of European stocks.
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USD Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Empire State Manufacturing Index, and Retail Sales m/m – 1:30pm BST:
A plethora of economic releases from the US is scheduled, including the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. Additionally, Core Retail Sales, CPI, and Retail Sales figures will provide crucial insights into consumer spending trends and inflationary pressures. The Empire State Manufacturing Index will offer a snapshot of manufacturing activity in the New York region.
Thursday, 16th May:
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Japan’s Q1 GDP and Consumption Data:
All eyes turn to Japan as a plethora of Q1 data floods the market, including GDP, exports, and consumption figures. Of particular interest is the GDP deflator, with expectations of moderation potentially impacting the yen’s strength. A weaker-than-expected GDP deflator could heighten speculation around BOJ rate hikes, triggering volatility in USD/JPY.
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AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate – 2:30am BST:
Australia’s Employment Change is forecasted to rise by 25.3K after a previous decline of -6.6K, with the Unemployment Rate expected to increase slightly from 3.8% to 3.9%. These metrics provide key indicators of the health of the Australian labour market, influencing future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
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USD Unemployment Claims – 1:30pm BST:
Weekly unemployment claims data from the US will be released, providing insights into the state of the US labour market. Any significant deviations from market expectations could impact market sentiment and future expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.
Friday, April 19th:
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CNY Industrial Production y/y, Retail Sales y/y – 3:00am BST:
China’s Industrial Production year-on-year is expected to show a growth of 5.4%, providing insights into the performance of the world’s second-largest economy. Simultaneously, China’s Retail Sales year-on-year is forecasted to increase by 3.9%, reflecting consumer spending trends and economic activity in the Chinese market. These figures will offer valuable indications of China’s economic health and its impact on global markets.
Global Equity Earnings:
Despite nearing the end of Q1 earnings season, investors keep a keen eye on key releases such as Walmart in the US and various UK equity earnings reports. Strong earnings growth in Q1 has boosted investor confidence, potentially driving further gains in equity markets. Any surprises in earnings results could offer insights into the health of the global economy and influence market sentiment.
Furthermore, ongoing US-China trade tensions and upcoming elections may heighten volatility in financial markets.
Trade talks between the US and China significantly affect global markets, with every tariff announcement impacting stocks, currencies, and commodities. These negotiations could alter trade patterns, corporate profits, and economic growth. Additionally, approaching US elections introduce further uncertainty, due to potential policy changes or geopolitical shifts that could affect sectors and assets. Expectations around tax reforms or trade agreements influence sentiment and asset allocation.
