Monday, 16th September:
- USD Empire State Manufacturing Index – 4:30pm BST: This report tracks the performance of the manufacturing sector in New York state. The previous reading was -4.7, but forecasts now predict a recovery to 11.5, which could boost US equities and impact the USD.
Tuesday, 17th September:
- EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 1:00pm BST: A key indicator of German economic outlook. Forecasts suggest a sentiment of 17.2, down slightly from 19.2, reflecting ongoing concerns over slowing Eurozone growth.
- USD Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales – 1:30pm BST: Retail sales data is crucial as consumer spending drives 70% of the US economy. A forecast of -0.2% (headline) and 0.2% (core) will impact US stock indices, as traders watch for signs of whether a soft landing or recession is more likely.
- CAD CPI (Inflation Data) – 4:30pm BST: Canadian inflation data could drive volatility in CAD pairs and affect future Bank of Canada rate decisions. Key indicators include the median CPI forecasted at 2.3% and trimmed CPI at 2.6%.
Wednesday, 18th September:
- GBP Inflation Data (CPI) – 7:00am BST: With inflation data forecasted at 2.2%, traders will be eyeing whether the Bank of England can justify a potential second rate cut in 2024. This data is crucial for the GBPUSD and UK100 index direction.
- USD Fed Interest Rate Decision – 7:00pm BST, Fed Press Conference – 7:30pm BST: Traders are on edge as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the first rate cut of 2024. The market is uncertain whether it will be a 25bps or 50bps cut. Chairman Powell’s comments during the press conference will be critical for assessing the trajectory of future rate cuts, inflation, and economic slowdown.
- USD Building Permits – 4:30pm BST: Provides insight into future construction activity and the housing market’s health, impacting the USD and related sectors.
- USD Crude Oil Inventories – 6:30pm BST: This report will influence oil prices, particularly given the global focus on energy supply and demand balance.
Thursday, 19th September:
- AUD Employment Data – 2:30am BST: With the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a hawkish stance, this data is crucial. A weaker-than-expected employment report could increase pressure on the RBA to shift towards rate cuts, impacting AUDUSD and ASX 200.
- GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision – 12:00pm BST: The BoE faces a critical decision amidst improving UK economic data. The market is divided over whether the BoE will cut rates, with potential volatility in GBPUSD and UK100.
- USD Unemployment Claims – 4:30pm BST: Weekly claims provide a snapshot of the US labor market, which is central to understanding economic momentum.
- USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 4:30pm BST: Manufacturing activity is expected to come in at -0.6, a marked improvement from -7.0. A strong reading could support risk sentiment and impact US equities.
- USD Existing Home Sales – 6:00pm BST: Important for gauging the strength of the US housing market, with a forecast of 3.89M sales, down from 3.95M.
Friday, 20th September:
- JPY Inflation Data (CPI) – 12:30am BST: Japanese inflation data will influence market expectations ahead of the BoJ meeting. A reading in line or above expectations will drive volatility in USDJPY and Japan 225.
- CNY PBOC Interest Rate Decision – 2:15am BST: After disappointing inflation readings in China, markets are awaiting potential stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China. Traders in the China A50 and Hong Kong 50 indices will closely watch the outcome.
- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision – 5:00am BST, BoJ Press Conference – 6:30am BST: The BoJ is not expected to make any policy changes, but Governor Ueda’s comments during the press conference will be important for traders to assess future policy direction, influencing USDJPY and Japan 225.
- GBP Retail Sales – 10:00am BST: Retail sales data is expected to show a 0.4% increase, down from the previous 0.5%. This data is critical for assessing consumer spending strength and its impact on GBP.
- CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks – 4:15pm BST: Remarks from the Bank of Canada Governor will provide insights into future monetary policy and impact CAD pairs.
- CAD Retail Sales – 4:30pm BST: Retail sales are forecasted at 0.3%, following a -0.3% decline in the previous reading. This data will be key for traders focusing on the CAD and Canadian economy.
- EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 7:00pm BST: ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech will provide valuable insights into the central bank’s outlook and future policy, influencing the Euro and European stocks.
This week promises significant market movements with central bank decisions, inflation data, and key consumer metrics all set to drive volatility.
